‘Isolated’ Iranian forces suspected of firing missile towards Turkey
An Iranian ballistic missile that was heading towards Turkish airspace before being intercepted by Nato air and missile defence systems near the southern city of Hatay on Wednesday may have been fired by “isolated” Iranian elements, Middle East Eye understands.
Since the beginning of the joint US-Israeli strikes over the weekend, Iran has avoided Turkish airspace, refraining from firing any missiles or drones toward the Nato ally, which hosts American forces and installations.
The downed missile, possibly intercepted by Nato ships deployed in the Eastern Mediterranean, was flying nearly 100km east of Turkey’s Incirlik Air Base, which previously hosted US military troops.
Sources familiar with the incident told MEE that the missile may have been launched by elements within the Iranian military operating under a decentralised system after US and Israeli strikes reportedly killed more than 40 high-ranking Iranian officials.
Oral Toga, an expert at the Ankara-based Centre for Iranian Studies, said it is now common knowledge that Iran designed a system known as the “Mosaic” doctrine to respond to challenges in cases of a breakdown in command and control.
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“Since the entire military response is currently functioning in a decentralised manner, there might have been some cliques within the Iranian forces that decided to fire missiles towards Turkey for reasons currently not known,” Toga told MEE.
A separate report indicating another interception of a suspected Iranian missile on Wednesday in Syria’s Qamishli might suggest that “this was not an honest mistake”, Toga added.
Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said in an interview with Al Jazeera on Sunday that some military units had become “independent and somewhat isolated”, operating only on pre-issued general instructions.
Araghchi added that strikes targeting Oman, for example, were not Iran's preference and that units had been warned to be careful about their targets. However, his warnings did not prevent another reported attack on Oman earlier this week, according to official statements from the Omani government.
Turkish foreign ministry sources told MEE that Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan conveyed Turkey’s protest to his Iranian counterpart in a phone call on Wednesday, warning that Tehran must refrain from steps that could expand the war across the region.
Turkey also hosts an early-warning radar at Kurecik, a critical component of Nato's ballistic missile defence system, located some 700km west of the Iranian border.
The “Mosaic” doctrine - developed by Iran over the past two decades, particularly within the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps - disperses command structures, weapons systems and operational units across broad geographic and organisational nodes. The strategy empowers regional commanders to operate autonomously if communications with Tehran are disrupted.
In a similar spirit, Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian earlier this week delegated central government authority to provincial governors to ensure uninterrupted public services.
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