Exclusive: Iranian authorities prepare for civil war scenario

As Israeli and US attacks on Iran continue, Iranian political and military leaders are preparing for the possibility of a civil war, sources familiar with the matter told Middle East Eye.

Two sources within the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) said that after the end of the 12-day war with Israel and the US in June last year, senior security and military officials concluded that another conflict was likely.

Since then, they have been preparing for a potential civil war scenario.

A source inside the IRGC told MEE that after that war, the country’s official army command and the Revolutionary Guard were given broader powers to operate in western, southwestern and southeastern Iran.

The aim was to allow them to act independently if communication with central command was cut.

“It was clear that in the next war, the US and Israel would turn to the same scenarios they used in Iraq and Syria,” the source said.

“Because during the 12-day war, they realised that we could respond to their strikes with missiles deployed across the country,” they added.

“One of the first strategies after the war was to establish independent command centres and deploy more ground forces to provinces that could become primary targets in a civil war.”

According to the source, the deployment of additional ground forces began in September. It has taken place in stages and has been presented publicly as military exercises.

The Kurdish regions have been a particular focus, the source said, as the ruling establishment expects Iranian Kurdish armed groups inside Iraq to attack Iran with support from the United States and Israel.

One senior Iranian official who appeared to refer to these groups was Ali Larijani, secretary of the Supreme National Security Council.

In a message on 28 December, he warned: “Separatist groups should not think they will have an opportunity to act. We will not tolerate them.”

The west, southwest and southeast

Under this strategy, the Iranian government has also prepared for possible separatist conflicts in regions where armed groups opposed to the state have previously been active.

In the west and northwest, these areas include the provinces of Kurdistan, East Azerbaijan and West Azerbaijan. Kurdish populations living in this region have faced pressure from central governments for more than a century, both before and after the 1979 revolution.

'Separatist groups should not think they will have an opportunity to act. We will not tolerate them'

– Ali Larijani

Iranian Kurdish armed groups based in the semi-autonomous Kurdistan region of Iraq have carried out several guerilla operations in border areas and nearby villages in recent years. Some of these groups also fought against Iran during the 1980-88 Iran-Iraq War alongside the forces of Saddam Hussein.

Last week, five Iranian Kurdish armed groups based in Iraqi Kurdistan announced the formation of a strategic alliance and declared their readiness to fight the Iranian establishment.

On Wednesday, the Komala Party of Iran, another Kurdish armed group, also announced that it had joined the alliance.

Several sources have also reported that the United States is holding talks with Iranian Kurdish groups in an effort to draw them into a ground war with Iranian forces.

Kurdish cities targeted by US and Israel

At the same time, a review by Middle East Eye of the locations targeted since 28 February shows that, outside the capital Tehran, the largest number of US and Israeli strikes has been concentrated on Kurdish cities.

The cities of Marivan, Sanandaj, Saqqez, Baneh, Sarvabad and Kermanshah have been among the main targets.

Armed Iranian Kurds weigh role in potential US-backed ground assault

Read More »

The strikes have hit not only bases belonging to the IRGC and the army, but also police offices, municipalities, border posts and the border guard command centres.

Iran, meanwhile, launched several missile strikes on Wednesday at the headquarters of Kurdish armed groups in Iraqi Kurdistan.

Beyond the west and northwest, similar concerns exist in other parts of the country.

In the southwest, the military command in the oil-rich province of Khuzestan has also been granted expanded powers.

In recent years, the separatist armed group Ahwaziyya has emerged in the region, home to Iran’s Arab minority, and has carried out several attacks.

In the southeast, the province of Sistan and Baluchestan, Iran's poorest province, is also considered vulnerable. Armed groups in the region have carried out frequent attacks on official armed forces and civilians in recent years.

'The commanders of the missile units knew in advance what targets to attack once they heard about a strike on Iran'

– IRGC source

The province has also been caught in a drug war, with narco groups trafficking Afghanistan’s narcotics through the region.

Qassem Soleimani, the commander of the elite Quds Force who was assassinated in a US air strike in Baghdad in January 2020, had been involved for years in operations against drug gangs and armed ethnic groups in the area.

The source in the IRGC said Iran’s response to the first Israeli and US strikes on Saturday morning reflected these new preparations.

Roughly an hour after the attacks began, Iran launched retaliatory strikes against Israel and US military bases in Gulf Arab states. During the June war, Iran’s response had taken about 12 hours.

“The commanders of the missile units knew in advance what targets to attack once they heard about a strike on Iran and did not need to wait for orders if they were cut off from the command centre,” the source said.

According to the source, the speed of the response showed the shift in strategy after last year’s war.

On Thursday, Iranian authorities said at least 1,230 people had been killed by US-Israeli attacks on the country.

Cities under control of paramilitaries

A second IRGC source also told Middle East Eye that the plans prepared by the Revolutionary Guard and the Iranian army after the 12-day war included granting special powers to the Basij paramilitary.

According to the authorities, the Basij has more than 19 million members, of whom around one million are considered active. According to the source, these forces have been prepared for urban warfare.

'We knew the Zionists would target urban structures to create chaos and potential for a civil war'

- IRGC source

“Given the strategies Israel had in bombing Gaza, Lebanon and Syria, we knew the Zionists would target urban structures to create chaos and potential for a civil war,” the source said.

“For this reason, special responsibility for security in urban areas was given to active Basij members.”

The source added that developments in major cities such as Tehran and Isfahan show that Basij forces have already prepared to control different parts of cities, relying on their flexible structure and ability to reorganise quickly.

“From the very first day of the war, Basij cells capable of operating autonomously were activated,” the source said.

Iranian warship hit by US torpedo did not carry ammunition, say Indian sources

Read More »

“Because of the wartime conditions, the Basij has been given extensive powers to use arms and can operate independently, even in small groups.”

The widespread presence of these forces inside Iranian cities also reflects the impact of Israeli and US strikes on police infrastructure.

According to the source, attacks on police facilities, including even small police stations, have led the government to rely more heavily on paramilitary forces to maintain control in urban areas.

In recent days, numerous checkpoints in major cities have been set up not by the police but by Basij members.

These forces, who in recent years were often seen on the streets without weapons, are now operating in plain clothes and carrying Kalashnikov rifles.

A video message released on the second day of the war by Hassan Khomeini, the grandson of the founder of the Islamic Republic, also pointed to this mobilisation.

Considered a reformist figure within the political establishment and a potential candidate for being appointed as the next supreme leader, Khomeini addressed supporters of the government in his message:

“From today until the end of the war, it is an obligation for everyone to be present in the field and in the mosques. The enemy may cut off communications, but our strongholds are the mosques, our strongholds are the city squares. Every city and square must be held by the people who, while wearing black clothes, stand firmly by the ideals of the revolution.”

The reference to black clothing recalls the historical Siah Jamegan uprising, meaning “black-clothes”, which ended the Umayyad Caliphate and brought the Abbasid Caliphate to power.

Khomeini’s remarks, alongside the deployment of military forces in sensitive regions, and the growing presence of Basij units in major cities, confirm how the authorities are mobilising supporters and militia networks across the country for possible unrest or armed confrontation inside Iran.